Can the Aztecs Conquer San Diego? The Full-Time Hoops Preseason Top 10

After two empty trips to Open Division title games, Montgomery enters the season as heavy favorites to claim their first Open Division championship in school history.

The question looming large this preseason is whether an Aztec title is a foregone conclusion, and is there a team capable of denying them for a third straight year.

The challengers are familiar: St. Augustine, who beat them in 2023, and Carlsbad, who stopped them in a thriller in 2024, enter as the No. 2 and 3 teams, respectively. Mission Bay, arguably the most talent-laden roster in the top 10, checks in at No. 4.

Torrey Pines, which is looking to make it back to the Open Division semifinals or better after last year’s first-round exit, checks in at No. 5. The team that beat them in the first-round stunner, La Jolla Country Day, starts the Season at No. 6.

Three of the final four teams in the Top 10 didn’t qualify for the Open Division last team: San Marcos (D1 semi finalists from a year ago), Rancho Buena Vista (D2 finalists last year) and Victory Christian (D2 semifinalists) start the season at 7, 8 and 10 respectively.

At No. 9, Cathedral Catholic, which had a quick first round Open Divsion exit a season ago, looks to return to the promised land for the first time since 2021.

Here’s more on the preseason Top 10.

1. Montgomery

Last Season: 28-4, 8-0 Mesa League (Open Division Finalists)

Key Returners: JJ Sanchez, 6-5 Sr. F; Alek Sanchez, 6-4 Sr. G; Devin Montgomery, 6-5 Sr. W; Xair Mendez, 6-2 Sr. G; Xavier Guerrero, 6-5 Jr. F; Rey Gutierrez, 6-2 Sr. W; Jayden Cannon, 6-5 Sr. F

Key Additions: Darius “DK” Montgomery, 6-0 Jr. G; Kyden Eleazar-Martin, 5-8 Fr. PG

Key Departures: David Soto

Why they’ll win: Continuity. The core of this team has been together all four years, and four of the players - Mendez, the Sanchez Twins and Guerrero – have played basketball together since grade school. You can’t teach that type of chemistry. Add to the fact that the players are all very talented and it’s easy to see why the Aztecs are the heavy favorites to win their first CIF Open Division crown in three attempts. Sanchez operates like a miniature Nikola Jokic at the high school level. He plays at his pace, dominates his matchup and exploits mismatches and double teams better than any player at this level. His brother Alek takes a similarly deliberate approach to the game, and does it efficiently and without turning the ball over. On the flipside, Hamilton and Mendez provide the dynamism to complement that Sanchez twins - Hamilton a lengthy wing who is an ace defender, rebounder and slasher and Mendez who can explode on the offensive end at any given moment. This year’s role players are also better than previous years. Guerrero, the fifth starter, has nice size, mobility and versatility on offense that fits well in the support role. Montgomery, the Mar Vista transfer, is a solid shooter who led the Mariners in scoring as a sophomore, and Eleazar-Martin – son of coach Ed Martin – has savvy beyond his years. Even Gutierrez, who played spot minutes last season when the core was in foul trouble, has improved significantly and should be able to contribute when called upon.

Why they won’t: Emotions. You could argue that the Aztecs should have won last year’s championship if not for Mendez’s suspension due to an altercation in the CIF Semifinal win over St. Augustine. Over the years, the team has garnered a reputation of getting into incidents like these, and all it takes is one to derail what should be a relatively safe march to another title game. Mendez over the fall looked much more mature when faced with adversity.

2. Carlsbad

Last Season: 30-3, 10-0 North County Coastal League (Open Division Champions)

Key Returners: Jake Hall, 6-3 Sr.. G; Jordan Garner, 5-10 Sr. G; Trenton Mehl, 6-0 Jr. G; Briggs Young, 6-3 Jr. G; Jett Kenady, 6-1 Sr. G; Joaquin Fernandez-Silva, 6-3 Sr. W; Jayden Garner, 6-1 Jr. G

Key Additions: Dylan Sims, 6-2 Jr. W; Roman Payen, 6-10 Sr. F

Key Departures: Jael Martin, Tony Duckett, Tristan Guzman

Why they’ll win: Jake Hall. Simply put, the Lancers enter the season with the most dominant scorer in the Open Division who is on pace to crack the 3,000-point career scoring mark, and within striking distance of the Section’s all-time leading scorer Troy Leaf. And they will need Hall to resume the role he had as a sophomore, when he averaged nearly 30 points per game before coming off the pace last season when Duckett and Martin emerged as major scorers. This Lancers group has quality role players in Jordan Garner, a bulldog point guard who makes a living scoring in the paint, Mehl, a sharpshooter who is capable of big scoring outbursts when he’s dialed in from deep, Young, who provides timely shot making and Kenady, who can also score in bunches. But a lot will ride on the shoulders of the UC San Diego signee, and he’s proven time and again that he’s more than up to the task.

Why they won’t: Size, or lack thereof. Last year, the Lancers had 6-7 Martin, who proved to be a game changer on the defensive end, and Duckett, who grew to 6-4 and covered a lot of ground with his length. Outside of the intriguing volleyball prospect Gray, who has a long way to go in order to be a steady contributor in basketball, this team doesn’t have a major rotation player taller than 6-3. They will need to gang rebound and players like Sims and Young will have to play much bigger than their listed height in order to neutralize opponents size.

3. St. Augustine

Last Season: 25-6, 8-0 Western League (Open Division Semifinals)

Key Returners: Jaden Bailes, 6-2 Jr. G; Drew Parker, 6-4 So. W; Anthony Etheridge, 6-4 So. W; Paisios Polamolu, 6-0 So. G; Manny Cortez, 6-4 Sr. F; Johnny Stone, 6-1 Sr. G

Key Additions: Lincoln Grogan, 6-3 Jr. SG; Gustavo Tellez, 6-9 Fr. F

Key Departures: Lolo Rudolph, Ian De La Rosa

Why they’ll win: Mike Haupt. While you could argue that Montgomery should have won the title last season, you can also argue that if Ian De La Rosa had not torn his ACL in the first round of the playoffs or if Bailes had not missed the semifinals game that it would be the Saints - not Montgomery - facing Carlsbad in last year’s Open Finals, as Haupt had the team of Lolo Rudolph and a young group of role players within four points of the Aztecs in the fourth quarter.

The Saints will lean on the alchemy of their longtime coach to stave off the team’s Western League rivals. They will begin the season without Polamolu (football) and Grogan, the sharpshooter transfer from Mater Dei, who wont be eligible until the sit-out period ends. Bailes, who emerged last season as an All CIF first teamer, will be called upon to assume more of a leadership role and the talented group of freshman behind him must all continue their upward trajectory. The furthest along appears to be Parker, who during the fall showed flashes of being a dominant inside-out threat on the wing. Etheridge is the most athletically gifted, but must learn how to harness his athletic gifts and play under control. Cortez proved to be a steadying force in his minutes last season and will anchor the team both on offense and defense. If Haupt and the Saints make it to their third

Why they won’t: Senior Leadership. All of Haupt’s signature teams over the past 15 years have had a defined senior leader, from Brynton Lemar of yesteryear to Rudolph and De La Rosa a season ago. We will see who emerges as this team’s alpha, whether it’s Bailes, who is the team’s leading returning scorer, or perhaps Polamolu, who has natural leadership abilities on the hardwood and gridiron.

4. Mission Bay

Last Season: 22-12, 4-4 Western League (Division 1 Champions)

Key Returners: Caleb Newton, 6-3 Jr. G; Clay Grebing, 6-7 Jr. F; Pablo Balderas, 6-5 Sr. C; Atreju De La Cruz, 6-0 Sr. G; Kevon Fitzpatrick, 6-3 Sr. W; Abwola Ochalla, 6-5 Sr. F

Key Additions: Maseyo Elliott, 6-3 Sr. G; Jocori “Jojo” Bartlett, 6-1 Jr. G; Amari Council, 6-5 Jr. W; Travis Hasley, 6-3 Jr. G

Key Departures: Charlie Hutchison, Marcos Korch, Isaah Whitehurst, Kumari West, Charlie Grebing

Why they’ll win: Talent. A year after the Bucs found their stride late in the season and cruised to a D1 title and made some noise in the state playoffs before narrowly losing to Heritage Christian, this Buccaneers iteration looks primed to make the jump into the Open Division title race. At the fore of the push is the dramatically improved junior duo of Newton and Grebing. Newton, whose transfer on the eve of the season last year from Los Angeles generated lots of buzz, looked this fall to have turned the corner to realizing his Division 1 caliber. So did Grebing, who has size, length and shooting ability on the perimeter that makes him a matchup problem. The supporting cast around them has solid guard play in De La Cruz and transfers Elliott (Mater Dei Catholic) and Bartlett (Temecula Chaparral), bruising rebounding and interior presences in Balderas and the vastly improved Ochalla and wildcards in Hasley and Fitzpatrick. There’s no reason why the Bucs should slip into Division 1 this year.

Why they won’t: Role allocation. One of the issues with last year’s Bucs squad was that they had too much depth, which made it difficult to get a consistent rotation. This year’s team had similar concerns entering the fall, but at least one player in that rotation transferred out, providing some relief.

5. Torrey Pines

Last Season: 21-9, 8-2 North County Coastal League (Open Division Quarterfinalists)

Key Returners: Cody Shen, 6-3 Sr. G; Tevaris Green, 6-4 Jr W; Zander Ovies, 6-0 Jr. G; Aiden Sykes, 6-4 Sr. F; Amir Sadeghi, 6-0 Sr. G; Zain Mehio, 6-4 Sr. W; Karel Novy, 6-3 Jr. F; Chase Rogowski, 6-6 Jr. F; Asad Brown, 5-11 Sr. G

Key Additions: None

Key Departures: Matin Madadkar, Max Zylicz, Dylan Kail

Why they’ll win: Execution. Torrey Pines remains one of two programs since the advent of the Open Division to qualify for each Open Division playoffs. The reason they remain a constant is the system under longtime head coach John Olive, which puts the personnel in the right places to be successful. This year’s iteration features Shen, who has emerged as a fundamentally sound assassin as a senior, evidenced by big showings this summer at the Section 7 Team Camp and in the fall at the Border League. The other player to emerge during that time period is Green, who has been on a tear shooting the basketball from distance, averaging 20 points per game during a four-game run at the Border League. Mehio and Sadeghi are excellent defenders and glue guys that fit the Falcons archetype of role players who emerge as seniors. The Falcons also welcome back Ovies and Novy, who missed last season with injuries. Both will have to get reacclimated to the hardwood, but once they do, the Falcons will have a much deeper team that a season ago and will be capable of not just making the Open Division, but advancing as well.

Why they won’t: Perimeter shooting. Outside of Green, this Falcons squad is streaky at best from the perimeter. They’ll need Shen, who has proven capable of hitting shots from deep erratically over his career, to become more consistent to keep defenses from packing it in.

6. La Jolla Country Day

Last Season: 23-7, 11-1 Coastal League (Open Division Semifinals)

Key Returners: Christopher Carrillo, 5-11 Sr. PG; Ely Elegado, 6-2 Sr. SG; Wyatt Tilson, 6-3 Jr. F; Henry Kiamilev, 6-0 Sr. G; Ekin Matanza, 6-1 Sr. F; Isaac Herman, 6-1 Sr W

Key Additions: Alejandro Gonzalez, 6-5 So. F; Reid Givens, 6-6 Sr. F

Key Departures: James Wei

Why they’ll win: Experience. The Torreys bring back all but one of their top 7 scorers from a season ago, led by All CIF point guard Carrillo, who emerged as a bona fide star doubling as scoring and playmaking threat during his junior season, and Tilson, who became an All League player in his first season on the varsity level. Elegado also returns and has been one of the region’s top shooters since his sophomore year on the varsity level. Kiamilev, who has microwave scoring ability in reserve roles through his career, also returns, as does Matanza, who provides toughness and rebounding that far exceeds his listed height. Add in the return of Givens, who missed much of the last two years due to injury and the big addition of Gonzalez, who was an all-FTH freshman selection at Escondido Charter, and this group should be right back in the Open Division mix.

Why they won’t: No element of surprise. Last year’s Torreys squad definitely snuck up on teams, but with a year to scout a largely in-tact cast of players, will they still have that surprise quality, or will teams be able to figure them out? A lot depends on if Carrillo can finally find a consistent jump shot from the perimeter and how well Gonzalez and Tilson fit defensively. Finally, the loss of Wei to graduation is an underrated one, as his selflessness on offense and versatility on defense was key to the Torreys success.

7. San Marcos

Last Season: 26-8, 8-2 Palomar League (D1 Semifinals)

Key Returners: Jalen Wiliams, 6-2 Jr. G; Richie Ramirez, 6-2 So. G; Elias Flaim, 6-1 Sr. G; Jackson McCall, 6-5 So. F; Mike Brown, 6-4 Jr. F; Chris Crowell, 6-2 Jr. G; Ty Sagaser, 6-3 Jr. F; Nico Mott, 6-0 So. G

Key Additions: Isaiah Hill, 6-4 Fr. F; Tyjah Knowles, 6-3 Jr. F

Key Departures: Derek Tuason, Colton Kelley, Mazen El Bissat

Why they’ll win: Guard play. The Knights have arguably the best one-two backcourt punch in San Diego in Williams and Ramirez, who both emerged as Division 1 recruits over the summer. Williams, who received his first offer from UC San Diego, is a silky smooth scorer who has become a consistent threat from well beyond the college three and strong enough to score through contact. Ramirez, a gifted slasher and playmaker who excels on the defensive side of the ball, complements Williams perfectly. Add in the emergence of Mott as a high-level shot maker, the steady hand of Flaim from three-point range, and the length, versatility and motor of Crowell, who has also improved significantly in the two years since he transferred from Orange Glen, and it’s easy to see why Dante Carey is so high on this team. Want further proof? The Knights schedule is significantly tougher than last year’s including a trip to the Torrey Pines Holiday Classic and a road contest against Santa Ana Mater Dei.

Why they won’t: Youth. The Knights have one senior in the rotation, Flaim. Whether that lack of senior leadership hurts them remains to be seen, but in the summer, they did struggle against some of the more experienced teams they faced, such as Santa Ana Foothill, which at the time they played in July started five seniors.

8. Rancho Buena Vista

Last Season: 24-9, 7-1 Avocado League (D2 Finalists)

Key Returners: CJ Aldrich, 6-1 Jr. G; Ayden Horn, 6-5 Sr. W; Matthew Horn, 6-4 Sr. F; Caden Keys, 6-5 Sr. F; Isaiah Justice, 6-3 Sr. G; Justian Richardson, 6-2 Jr. W; Micah Boucher, 6-0 Sr. G, Ryder Newtson, 5-11 Sr. G

Key Additions: Marcquis Bradley Jr., 6-1 Jr. G, Jeremiah Justice, 6-0 So. G

Key Departures: Trent Lotito, Shay Todd

Why they’ll win: Aldrich and the supporting cast fit. The Longhorns return much of their production from last season’s breakout squad, which made it to the D2 championship game and gave CIF Southern Regional finalists Bosco Tech a big scare in round 1 of the state playoffs. In that game, Aldrich served notice statewide that he was ready for the big stage, dropping 38 points in the 87-83 loss. Aldrich, the reigning co-Avocado League player of the year, has already crossed the 1,000-point threshold in two seasons. But he’s not alone: The Horn twins have both improved significantly since the start of their careers, with Ayden garnering all-league first team honors last season, and Keys gives the Longhorns a unique shooting threat with size at 6-5. All told, most of RBVs lineups will feature 4 players taller than 6-3 around Aldrich, and that collective length and size matters. But make no mistake, this team will go as far as Aldrich will take them.

Why they won’t: Consistent scoring outside of Aldrich. Last year, the Longhorns could turn to the criminally underrated Lotito - the team’s only other double figure scorer - when they needed a bucket. This year’s team will need the Horns, Keys or Justice to pick up the slack in games when teams try to take away Aldrich via double teams or exotic defenses.

9. Cathedral Catholic

Last Season: 19-10, 6-2 Western League (Open Division Quarterfinalists)

Key Returners: Patrick O’Brien, 6-5 Sr. G; Steven Evans-Glynn, 6-5 Sr. W; PJ Jourdain, 6-3 Sr. G; Kai Carlson, 6-5 Jr. F; Max Meza, 6-2 Jr. G; Luke Rall, 6-1 Sr. G; Tyler Hanlon, 6-5 Sr. F

Key Additions: Tyler Vosburgh, 6-5 Jr. F; Boone Thompson, 6-5 Fr. F

Key Departures: Ryan Enos, Ty Ingram, Andrew Garcia, Coen Sponsel

Why they’ll win: Shooting. In Year 2, Graham Bousley’s squad has embraced the three-point line as its equalizer. With No fewer than seven players capable of knocking down shots from distance, the Dons play a 5-out style and allow its ball handlers to break down defenders and find open shooters on kick-out passes, leading to quality open looks that guys like Jourdain, Carlson, Meza, Rall, Hanlon, Vosburgh and O’Brien can knock down at steady clips. The catalysts are O’Brien - who last year flirted with averaging a triple double at one point in the season - and Evans-Glynn, who Bousley experimented with at point guard during an extended absence from O’Brien due to injury this fall. With both in the fold, it gives the Dons two players capable of getting into the defense, drawing double teams and finding open shooters. When the team is knocking down shots, they’re fun to watch and dangerous.

Why they won’t: Defense. On the flipside, this team has stretches where they struggle to keep teams out of the paint and allow opponents to score at will, which means the Dons will be in a lot of shootouts this year. If their shots aren’t falling, those games can get away from them in a hurry.

10. Victory Christian

Last Season: 20-10, 6-0 South Bay League (D2 semifinalists)

Key Returners: Jayden Gray, 6-0 Jr. G; Angel Escarcega, 5-10 Sr. G; Isaiah Owens, 6-2 Jr. F; Chato Garcia, 6-0 Jr. G; Ben Cordova, 6-2 Jr. G

Key Additions: Angel Ochoa, 5-10 Sr. G; Elijah Bragg, 6-6 Sr. C; Kaerym Araiza, 6-3 Sr. W, Ryan Guo, 6-3 Sr. G

Key Departures: Derek Edmond, Mason Zennedjian

Why they’ll win: Depth. The Knights’ roster, bolstered by the addition of several high-profile transfers, is as deep as it’s ever been for the tiny Chula Vista campus program. Gray and Escarcega are now joined in the back court with Escarcega, who led the county in scoring a year ago. This gives the Knights as potent a guard triumvirate as you’ll see in the region. Their back line was also bolstered by the addition of Bragg, who provided position defense and rebounding, and Araiza, who has length and a solid shooting stroke. Owens is arguably the linchpin to the squad, with his defensive versatility and work on the boards, as well as his unselfishness on offense that allows for the guards to score it at will. And the Knights also have gotten improved returns from Garcia and Cordova, who transferred a year ago from St. Augustine and La Jolla Country Day, respectively. Will Gray has a roster that can compete for an Open Division berth.

Why they won’t: Role allocation. There’s only one basketball, and with three guards like Gray, Escarcega and Ochoa, it will be a question of who will sacrifice touches and shot attempts to make it work. So far, the players seem to be doing all the right things during the fall, but ultimately it will be a question of how it comes together during the regular season in those crunch time games in the Mesa League, where Montgomery and Mater Dei loom large.