Wide Open Races: The Full-Time Hoops Preseason Top 10

San Diego high school basketball had a clear cut favorite or two when looking at the Open Division race over the first five years of the 2020s. Cathedral Catholic and Torrey Pines had epic battles in 2020 and 2021, then St. Augustine had a two-year reign atop the section as the clear and convincing favorite, followed by Carlsbad and Montgomery's clashes in 2024 and 2025.

For the first time this decade, the Open Division race is wide open.

Part of it is that, despite the 2026 class having a lot of individual talent, it's spread out across the county and not concentrated at specific schools. The other part is, without question, transfers -- from big names leaving the county such as Jaden Bailes at St. Augustine and Richie Ramirez and San Marcos, and even inter-city movement like Sammell Humphries' transfer from Olympian to Victory Christian -- have weakened teams that could have been as strong has we've seen in recent memory.

What we're left with is parity at the top of San Diego like we haven't seen in a decade.

Francis Parker will open at No. 1 for the first time in the Open Division era, followed by Western League foes Mission Bay and St. Augustine, who had a pair of epic battles last year and both lost top juniors from a season ago.

Torrey Pines, which added a pair of quality transfers, and San Marcos, whose program depth should help them absorb the loss of three potential starters, round out the Top 5.

Santa Fe Christian, which has been a relative mainstay in the Open conversation in recent years, opens at No. 6 under first-year coach Johnny Dee. Victory Christian, a newcomer to the Open Division conversation, is my No. 7 with a roster that will be bolstered by transfers after the sit-out period.

Cathedral Catholic, who adds prolific scoring senior transfer guard Sei'Mir Robinson and Scripps transfer Charlie Barajas, enter the season at No. 8, with Olympian - which lost Humphries to Victory Christian - and Open Division runners up Carlsbad rounding out the Top 10.

1. Francis Parker

Last Season: 19-12, 6-2 Coastal League (Open Division Quarterfinalist)

Key Returners: Tavid Lee Johnson, 6-3 Jr. G; Kai Jones, 6-0 Jr. G; Nicolo Whitchurch, 6-3 Jr. W, Deven Dubois, 6-7 Sr. F; Columbus Palmer, 5-11 So. G; Ben Adler, 5-10 Jr. G

Key Additions: Ezekiel Walker, 6-3 Sr. G; Kamran Shirazi, 5-10 Fr. G; Tyson Tominna, 5-11 Fr. G; Boaz Koffler, 5-7 So. G

Key Departures: Amon Andrews

Why they’ll win: Offense. And lots of it. The Lancers have two of the most gifted offensive talents in the section in Johnson - a consensus top 150 prospect - and Walker, who has wowed onlookers over the summer with his newfound explosiveness and deadeye shooting from deep. Surrounding them are players who have a knack for putting the ball in the hoop. Jones, a phsyical lefty guard and Palmer, who struggled at times as a freshman, have both significantly improved, as has Dubois, who grew several inches the past two seasons and will be a major X-factor for the team. Add in Shirazi, a freshman with unlimited range who impressed over spring and summer, and the Lancers look like a team capable of scoring 70 or more points on any given night.

Why they won’t: Defense. Or a relative lack of it. It's not that the Lancers can't defend. It's whether they can sustain the defensive effort for long enough stretches against the gauntlet of a schedule they will play. That starts at the top with Johnson, who has shown the ability to sit down and be a disruptive defensive presence due to his length and craftiness, but his effort level and attention to detail on that end vacillate. Make no mistake though: this team would prefer to run you out of the gym in a shootout.

2. Mission Bay

Last Season: 21-10, 4-4 Western League (Open Division Semifinalist)

Key Returners: Clay Grebing, 6-7 Sr. F; Jocori "JoJo" Bartlett, 6-1 Sr. PG; Travis Hasley, 6-4 Sr. W; Amari Council, 6-5 Sr. W; Lucky Davis, 6-0 So. G; Alijah Cheeks, 6-1 Jr. G; Cole Mattingly, 6-1 Sr. G

Key Additions: Lee Mannheimer, 6-8 Jr. C (out); Jack Wainwright, 6-5 Jr. F; Romeo Flores, 6-4 Fr. G

Key Departures: Caleb Newton, Pablo Balderas, Atreju De La Cruz, AB Ochalla

Why they’ll win: Intensity. The loss of Newton was significant in the sense that it took away a gifted offensive weapon who, when motivated, could take over games. But at times his effort and interest level waned. The Bucs sans Newton have a fiery group that embodies the mentality of their coach, Marshawn Cherry. Bartlett, who is coming off of a spring and summer that saw him emerge as the tone setter for the team, could be headed for an All-CIF caliber season. Grebing, a recent Point Loma Nazarene commit, looks poised to finally live up to the promise surrounding him since his freshman year. The role players surrounding them all have high ceilings - watch out for Hasley, who has played his best basketball of his career in the leadup to the season, with newfound confidence in his starting role, as well as Council, who has a motor that runs hot and his activity level on defense provides a new wrinkle for the Bucs. If the young guards Davis and Cheeks get into a rhythm early, this team could do some damage.

Why they won’t: Who's the closer? In Newton, Cherry had a player he could turn to in the clutch if he needed a key bucket from every level. The most likely replacement in those roles is Bartlett, who is improved, but still streaky as a perimeter shooter. But between him and Grebing, one must embrace the role of closer for the Bucs to emerge in the close games.

3. St. Augustine

Last Season: 19-15, 8-0 Western League (Division 1 Champions)

Key Returners: Lincoln Grogan, 6-3 Sr. G; Anthony Etheridge, 6-5 Jr. W; Drew Parker, 6-4 Jr. W; Paisios Polamolu, 6-0 Jr. G; Grayson Bell, 6-4 Jr. F; Peter Hanna, 6-6 Sr. C; Gustavo Tellez, 6-10 So. C; Kai Blue, 5-10 So. G; Luciano Fiorentini, 6-0 So. G

Key Additions: Jackson McCall, 6-5 Jr. WG; Kiefer Johnson, 6-0 Fr. G; Justin Murigu, 6-3 Jr. W

Key Departures: Jaden Bailes, Manny Cortez

Why they’ll win: Mike Haupt. One thing that I've learned during my years of covering San Diego basketball is that you can't count out a Haupt-coached team. The 3-12 opening to last season was one of the few aberrations during his 30+ year tenure at the North Park campus, and a confluence of injuries to key players, the absence of Polamalu due to the football team's deep run and the wait for Grogan to suit up after the sit-out period. This year's team is much better equipped to handle any of those scenarios, as Grogan - one of the best shooters in California - Etheridge, and Parker have all grown significantly from last season. The addition of McCall from San Marcos gives the Saints a versatile and long front court and in McCall, a player who can play on the ball and activate the other wings. Once Polamalu makes his way back from the gridiron, this will be as talented a starting five as you'll see in San Diego this year. And the Saints should be deeper than last year with underrated glue guys such as Hanna and Bell, as well as guards Blue and Johnson, a very promising freshman who is considered one of the best 2029 guard prospects in the state.

Why they won’t: Who sets the tone? Over the summer and fall, the Saints faced an identity crisis as it looked for someone to fill the void left by Bailes, who was their primary scorer and playmaker a year ago. If the Saints are to reach their ceiling, someone must emerge as a leader from this group of players, who have all been very talented role player up until this point.

4. Torrey Pines

Last Season: 24-7, 10-0 North County Coastal League (Open Division Quarterfinalists)

Key Returners: Tevaris Green, 6-4 Sr. W; Zander Ovies, 6-1 Sr. G; Chase Rogowski, 6-7 Sr. F; Harris Notrica, 6-4 Sr. F

Key Additions: Jaylan Virgil, 6-1 Jr. G; Tyler Humphrey, 6-6 Jr. W; Jack Spetter, 6-5 Jr. F; Andre Chung, 6-0 Jr. G; Ari Krasniqi, 6-0 Sr. G

Key Departures: Cody Shen, Zain Mehio, Amir Sadeghi

Why they’ll win: Their Starting Five. John Olive's crew on paper has one of the most talented starting fives in the section, with solid guard play -- Ovies has experience and the transfer Virgil is a hot-shooting scoring guard who can fill it up in a hurry -- excellent wings -- Green had a breakout campaign last year and Humphrey, who averaged double figures at Mt. Carmel, is emerging as a top prospect in San Diego -- and a resourceful big in the now 6-7 Rogowski. History dictates that when you give Olive this type of talent, he wins. This year should be no different. The new additions need time to get acclimated to the Falcons dense playbook, but as they do, this team could be a prime challenger for the top spot in the region.

Why they won’t: The Bench. The cupboard isn't completely bare in the reserves, as Notrica has good size and is a versatile defender in the back court and Spetter is a bruiser who does work on the glass. But outside of Krasniqi, a crafty guard who at times has a penchant for going off script in a program that heavily relies on the script, there's not much offensive output in the reserve ranks, which could be problematic in games where they have to score to keep pace.

5. San Marcos

Last Season: 25-5, 10-0 Palomar League (Open Division Quarterfinalists)

Key Returners: Jalen Williams, 6-3 Sr. G; Mike Brown, 6-6 Sr. F; Nico Mott, 6-1 Jr. G; Marcus Tuason, 5-6 So. G; Chris Crowell, 6-3 Sr. G; Tyjah Knowles, 6-3 Sr. W; Quentin Allen, 5-9 Sr. G

Key Additions: CJ Johnson, 6-2 Fr. G; Ryan Jacobs, 6-5 So. W; Kyle Jacobs, 6-5 So. F

Key Departures: Richie Ramirez, Jackson McCall, Isaiah Hill

Why they’ll win: Role allocation. At times last year, the Knights depth was their worst enemy. This year's team has a more streamlined rotation, and the holdovers display the depth of the program's talent pool, as despite losing three players of the caliber of Ramirez, McCall and Hill, the Knights should still be in a position to do damage countywide. Williams, an all-CIF player from a season ago, is coming off of a frustrating offseason that saw him miss most of AAU and fall with an injury, but appears to be rounding back into form. Brown has emerged has a force to be reckoned with in the paint and surprisingly from the perimeter, and Mott slides into Ramirez's spot in the back court and has microwave capabilities as a scorer. Johnson, who is among the top freshmen statewide, will play a key role early on, as will Crowell, who shows flashes of high level wing play but has been inconsistent over his career. They'll need him, as well as the Brady twins, to elevate their game on the defensive end to help the Knights reach their full potential.

Why they won’t: Williams health. While he's back, the program has waited with bated breath to see if Williams health will hold up for an entire season. If he does, the Knights have the prerequisite scoring and guard play to matchup with the best in San Diego. Without him, the slide begins in earnest.

6. Santa Fe Christian

Last Season: 23-8, 7-1 Coastal League (Open Division Quarterfinalists)

Key Returners: Dax Hall, 6-1 Sr. G; Chase Othick, 6-2 Jr. G; Coen Sponsel, 6-3 Sr. G; Jaden Hitipeuw, 6-3 Sr. W; Jairus Bolden, 6-5 Sr. F; Carson Gile, 5-6 Sr. G; Caden Doucette, 5-11 Sr. G; Everett Kerkhoff, 6-3 Sr. F

Key Additions: Brett Vermillion, 6-0 Jr. G; Armond Johnson, 6-4 Fr. F; Head Coach Johnny Dee

Key Departures: Andrew Konsmo

Why they’ll win: Guard Play. This collection of guards - led by the CIF Player of the Year candidate Hall - is special for newly minted head coach Dee, who knows a thing or two about guards. Hall is the ultimate blend of dynamic scoring and heady playmaking, while Othick - who emerged as a first-team all-league selection, has grown physically and diversified his offensive arsenal to three levels, and Sponsel - a Sarah Lawrence University commit - is a pure shooter with a silky stroke. Behind them, Doucette - a late bloomer guard - is a crafty playmaker and shooter, while Gile, a football player, makes up for his lack of size with grit and toughness and is a bulldog of a defender. The glue guys on this team are strong too, as Hitipeuw and Bolden both emerged during the stretch run of last year, especially Hitipeuw, who earned all league honors.

Why they won’t: Size. I think that this one is relative, because SFC has traditionally used their lack of size to their advantage in exploiting mismatches, but if they face a team that can neutralize that advantage while punishing them on the boards -- akin to what Montgomery did last season -- their lack of size could be an issue.

7. Victory Christian

Last Season: 18-15, 5-3 Mesa League (Division 1 Finalists)

Key Returners: Jayden Gray, 6-1 Sr. G; Isaiah Owens, 6-2 Sr. W; Chato Garcia, 6-1 Sr. G; Troy Tominna, 6-1 So. G; Kaerym Araiza, 6-4 Sr. W; Khalil Curry, 6-2 So. F; Ben Cordova, 6-3 Sr. F

Key Additions: Sammell "DJ" Humphries, 6-1 Sr. G; Desmond Aniangyei, 6-8 So. F; Michael Harvey, 5-10 So. G

Key Departures: Angel Ochoa, Angel Escarcega, Adrian Fernandez, Elijah bragg

Why they’ll win: Talent. If you look at this team on paper, it is clear that the Knights belong in the Open Division discussions, a feat five years in the making. At the center of the program's meteoric rise (which included a D3 championship, a D2 semifinals appearance and a D1 finals appearance a year ago) are Gray and Owens, who have been mainstays in the lineup since their freshman year - Gray a strong combo guard and Owens a utility player whose athleticism and motor are potent. Garcia is one of the section's most unsung glue guys, while Tominna, the reigning freshman of the year, looks ready to take a big leap in Year 2 as a scorer. The Knights are a team that you want to play early, because they will add the uber talented Humphries and Aniangyei, a legit rim protector, after the sit-out period. Humphries is arguably one of the biggest sleepers statewide at his position, and expect him to shine during the back half of the year.

Why they won’t: The first half of the season. The Knights play a veritable Murderers Row of a schedule, facing 9 top 25 teams before The Holiday Classic, all before the sit-out period. If they struggle, the Knights could dig themselves in an early hole that will make it difficult to emerge from in time to make a push for the Open Division. If the team navigates that stretch relative unscathed, they'll move up in a major way.

Cathedral Catholic

Last Season: 20-11, 6-2 Western League (Open Division Semifinalists)

Key Returners: Max Meza, 6-2 Sr. G; Kai Carlson, 6-5 Sr. F; Boone Thompson, 6-6 So. F; Tyler Vosburgh, 6-6 Sr. F; Breylon Jones, 6-2 Jr. W; Mason Moeller, 6-1 Sr. G

Key Additions: Charlie Barajas, 6-6 Sr. W; Sei'Mir Roberson, 6-0 Sr. G; Anthony Ali Nayab, 5-8 Fr. PG; Colton McQuaid, 6-0 Jr. G; Kevin Clark, 6-2 Jr. F; Sammy Weyer, 6-4 Jr. F; Gianluca Busalacchi, 6-2 Jr. W

Key Departures: Patrick O'Brien, PJ Jourdain, Steven Evans-Glynn

Why they’ll win: Balance. The Dons have inside out play that should make them a dark horse candidate in the Open Race. Meza is a criminally underrated scorer and playmaker, while his new back courtmate Roberson averaged 28 points per game last year in New York. Add in the emergence of freshman Nayab, who was excellent in the summer and fall, and the play of underrated guards McQuaid and Jones, the back court is solid. The front court is big and versatile, with defensive ace Carlson leading the way alongside the athletic lefty Barajas, who moves over from Scripps Ranch, and the rangy sharpshooter Vosburgh, who is one of the best "big shooters" in Southern California. Thompson, a big physical sophomore, is trying to find an identity within the system, but should provide physicality and badly needed rebounding. Unlike last year's team, which heavily relied on its big three of O'Brien, Jourdain and Evans-Glynn, this team will rely on the committee -- and the committee is talented.

Why they won’t: Chemistry. Can the newcomers and the holdovers all mesh together in time for the rugged Western League, which features five Top 25 teams, including Saints and Mission Bay? Injuries have kept them from playing as a complete unit during the fall, so the Dons will have to do it on the fly against a daunting schedule.

9. Olympian

Last Season: 26-7, 6-2 Mesa League (Division 2 Champions)

Key Returners: Tristan Anderson, 5-9 Jr. G; Jordan "JJ" Walker, 5-8 Sr. PG; Xaiver King, 6-4 Sr. F; Nijil Sherrill, 6-0 Sr. G; Matthew Huertas, Koa Cardeno, 5-9 Sr. G; 5-10 Sr. G; Quentin Ballard, 6-0 So. G; Neo Ruiz, 6-3 Sr. W; Jordan Barrera, 5-7 So. G; Liam Orozco, 6-0 Jr. G

Key Additions:

Key Departures: DJ Humphries, Yaseen Chemsi

Why they’ll win: Anderson and Walker. Yeah, they're undersized, but the duo is one of the most dynamic guard tandems not just in San Diego, but Southern California. Anderson, a crafty bucket getter with underrated athleticism, emerged over the summer as a D1 prospect, earning a Pepperdine offer. Walker, a thick legged midrange specialist, wreaks havoc on the defensive end and is a deft playmaker. Between the two of them, Marty Ellis has a pair that should will the Eagles to some big wins if the supporting cast coalesces around them. Look for Sherrard, who has grown like a foot since his freshman year, to slide into the role vacated by Humphries. While not the natural scorer that Humphries is, Sherrard's court vision and slick playmaking add a dimension that will make things easier for Anderson and Walker. In Cardeno and Huertas, Olympian has two of the best shooters in San Diego. Ballard, Ruiz Orozco and Barrera will add depth

Why they won’t: Size. An underrated loss to the team from a season ago is Chemsi, who gave the Eagles a nice bookend duo with King in the paint. After King, the next tallest player is Ruiz, who has a lanky wing build and isn't the physical presence that Chemsi is.

10. Carlsbad

Last Season: 26-7, 8-2 North County Coastal League (Open Division Runners Up)

Key Returners: Briggs Young, 6-3 Sr. G; Trenton Mehl, 6-0 Sr. G; Jayden Garner, 6-2 Sr. G; Dylan Sims, 6-3 Sr. G; Cole Manley, 6-5 Sr. F; Chance Smothers, 6-0 Sr. G

Key Additions: Braxton Rolf, 6-2 So. G; Issac Chapman, 6-8 So. F; Brody Frick, Jr. G; Aiden Abelardo, 6-0 So. G

Key Departures: Jake Hall, Jordan Garner

Why they’ll win: Toughness. The quartet of Young, Mehl, Garner and Sims grew up last season, doing much of the dirty work needed to complement the scoring dominance of Hall and Jordan Garner en route to the Lancers second straight appearance in the Open Division championship. You can't discount that level of experience when discussing Open Division contenders this year. Young, who recently committed to Northwest Nazarene, can score it from three levels, while Mehl is a compact sharpshooter who has made significant strides as a defender over the course of his career. Garner is an underrated scorer off the bounce and Sims is the ultimate enforcer and an elite rebounder for his size. Add in Manley, a high flyer who will patrol the paint and rebound as well, and the Lancers have some very good pieces to build around. Their sophomore group, headlined by the silky shooting Rolf and transfers Chapman (Classical Academy) and Abelardo (San Marcos), are next up.

Why they won’t: Scoring. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the primary scorer in this group of guys who were complementary players a year ago. That happens when you graduate two playes who comprise more than 70 percent of your offensive output. The best case scenario, however, is that the committee, entrusted with newfound confidence, gets it done with multiple double-digit scorers, the likely candidates being Young, Mehl and Garner and possibly Rolf.