Still a lot at stake in final two days of the season

The end of the regular season is nigh, and there are still lots of questions to be answered about the Open Division field before CIF releases the playoff seedings Saturday afternoon.

Much of this is shrouded in mathematical secrecy due to Maxpreps, whose ranking formula is about as tightly locked away as the KFC secret blend of 11 herbs and spices.

But, here's my best attempt at breaking down what could happen tonight at Friday that could shape what the Top 8 in San Diego looks like by Saturday.

Let's start with what we know...

Montgomery is No. 1

Carlsbad doesn't have enough scheduling points to overtake them, unless the Aztecs inexplicably lose to Mater Dei Catholic tonight in their senior night finale.

Carlsbad will be No. 2 barring a senior night loss to El Camino

Is a loss to the Wildcats within the realm of possibility? Sure, but it's senior night, the Lancers are trying to get senior Jake Hall to 3,000 points on the final game of the regular season and they've beaten the Wildcats once this season. I think a Lancers win is a pretty safe bet.

San Marcos is locked at No. 3 ... unless...

If the Knights drop their regular season finale to Mission Hills, Torrey Pines could overtake them at No. 3 with a win over La Costa Canyon. In that scenario, Torrey Pines could vault to No. 2 due to the head-to-head advantage over Carlsbad, dropping the Lancers to No. 3 and the Knights remaining locked at No. 4. If you're the Knights, the math is pretty simple: Beat your rival on Thursday.

If Torrey Pines stays at 4, they will be No. 5...unless...

The Falcons would drop to No. 5 courtesy of Mission Bay's 67-44 win over the Falcons during The Holiday Classic, though, there would be a scenario in which Santa Fe Christian overtakes Mission Bay in that No. 5 spot with wins over Cathedral Catholic and Marantha Christian and a Bucs loss on senior night to University City. In that scenario, the Falcons would remain the No. 4 seed, Santa Fe Christian would be No. 5 and the Bucs would fall to No. 6.

But...the most likely scenario is....

The Falcons win their final game and Mission Bay wins theirs, in which case the Bucs would climb to No. 4, the Falcons would be locked in at No. 5 and the Eagles would likely remain at No. 6, even with a loss to Cathedral Catholic.

Now, for what we don't know: Making sense of the 7-8 seeds...

Then there's the 7-8 mess.

Here's how the Maxpreps Rankings stand on the eve of the final day of the season:

No. 7: Francis Parker (rating 23.48, one game remaining vs La Jolla Country Day)

No. 8: Cathedral Catholic (rating 23.35, one game remaining vs Santa Fe Christian)

No. 9: La Jolla Country Day (rating 21.39, one game remaing vs Francis Parker)

No. 10 St. Augustine (20.74 rating, one game remaining vs Scripps Ranch)

Here are several scenarios that could play out, based on my best educated guesses:

Cathedral beats SFC, jumps Parker to No. 7; Parker beats La Jolla Country Day, remains at No. 8; La Jolla Country Day remains No. 9 because of H2H win against Saints.
Cathedral beats SFC, jumps Parker to No. 7; La Jolla Country day beats Parker, flips to No. 8 due to head to head wins over Parker, Parker falls to No. 9, St. Augustine remains at No. 10
SFC beats Cathedral; La Jolla Country Day beats Parker; Torreys overtake Cathedral for No. 8 seed, flip to No. 7 due to h2h wins over Parker, Parker takes No. 8 seed, Dons fall to No. 9 and Saints flip Cathedral due to h2h wins. In this scenario, No. 7 La Jolla Country Day, No. 8 Francis Parker, No. 9 St. Augustine and No. 10 Cathedral Catholic.
SFC beats Cathedral, Parker beats La Jolla Country Day, Saints beats Scripps. Parker remains No. 7 seed, the question becomes is Saints win over Scripps enough to jump both La Jolla Country Day and Cathedral Catholic in that scenario. If, in fact, it is, then Saints would improbably secure the No. 8 seed, with Cathedral Catholic and La Jolla Country Day falling to the No. 9 and No. 10 seed, respectively.

NOTE: Almost all of this is speculation due to the proprietary nature of the Maxpreps rankings formula.

In other words, folks, we won't know a lot of where things stand until Friday night, so buckle up!